Australia's Failed Bid to Stage UN Climate Summit Looks Chaotic – But It Could In Fact Be the Optimal Outcome Achievable

Well. On one hand, Australia's protracted bid to host the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the privilege to host the world's biggest environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have brought tens of thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next fall.

This won't occur. Rather, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

The result will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had believed organizing the environmental gathering could help accelerate the country's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials truly desired the proposal to succeed. His statements were ambiguous at best. This led to reports in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.

This contrasted with the message being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. While the minister supported it, other senior members of the administration have only sometimes appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and sometimes outright opposed.

There is little sign the prime minister has viewed international climate meetings a priority. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. But there is another way to consider it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, organizer and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", managing nearly 200 countries on the matters that the countries actually attend for – the talks on how to together address the climate crisis.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the deal had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could fall over before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on climate change.

Turkey is generally viewed in the international community as having been determined on creating disruption in the UN climate process. This framework is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is quietly done to encourage them to step aside.

Turkey clearly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's venue had backed the Australian bid.

However, uniquely, Turkey declined to withdraw. The word "disruption" has been thrown around in recent days, and not just by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no major power with the heft to confront the petroleum exporters that offered the Turkish government with some cover.

The Turkish president is seen as aligned with Vladimir Putin. Several nations worried about a conference hindered from the top if his administration managed the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to host an unprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was necessary. The UN system is flawed and often unsettling to watch, but multilateral action has empirically had an impact in the battle with climate change. This joint approach is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for increasing carbon-based exports, climate activists who participate in UN conferences see the minister as a positive influence in the talks. He has been asked to lead negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This matters. While certain critics have downplayed the role of a "chief negotiator", specialists from academic institutions and veteran observers at climate talks say it is pivotal to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a leader directing proceedings who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an significant result. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the conference other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unresolved issues. For example, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at climate conferences. How, if at all, can the Australian government do to stop a restriction on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this deal looking like the most promising opportunity possible to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, the nation and the global community. This attempt is justified.